Vic Reis Presentation

Reducing the Nuclear Threat

"Nonproliferation and Nuclear Power"

Eisenhower Institute Workshop with Dr. Victor Reis
Science Applications International Corporation
Former Assistant Secretary of Defense Programs at US Department of Energy

May 22,2002
The Eisenhower Institute
Washington, DC

Introduction and Background

In April of 2002, the Institute hosted a series of meetings with Dr. Georgi Rykovanov, Director of the Zababakhin Russian Federal Nuclear Center (VNIITF), and Dr. Evgeny Avrorin, Scientific Director of VNIITF. The meetings addressed how the US and Russia could improve bilateral political cooperation on Nunn-Lugar programs run by the US Department of Defense and Department of Energy; the conversion of Russian military projects to peaceful applications; nonproliferation and nuclear power; and US-Russian cooperation on the international counterterrorism effort. In addition, VNIITF and the Institute signed a Memorandum of Understanding to frame further discussions in five broad areas:

• · The full spectrum of nonproliferation-related issues, including the future of nuclear energy as it relates to proliferation-resistant approaches
• · Improving US-Russian bilateral cooperation on CTR and MPC&A programs: what could be and should be done from a political and technological standpoint
• · Ways in which the US can cooperate with Russia in the counterterrorism effort
• · Ways in which the US can work with Russia to engage emerging nuclear powers
• · Potential work on the conversion of military projects to peaceful applications (medical, commercial, etc.)
• As part of the Institute's ongoing efforts to address this range of issues, Institute President Susan Eisenhower welcomed Dr. Victor Reis, former Assistant Secretary of Defense Programs at US Department of Energy, to the Institute to discuss the future of nuclear power and identify some of the key issues confronting US policymakers in the areas of nuclear nonproliferation as it relates to the nuclear energy industry.

Nuclear Energy Issues

Dr. Reis began by providing some historical context for the current debate on nuclear energy and the related issue of nuclear nonproliferation:

• · Government funding in the US for nuclear energy programs has been nonexistent for the better part of thirty years. Political and popular support has been lacking, especially since the Three Mile Island and Chernobyl incidents in both the US and the Soviet Union.
• · The Russian government has continued to support research on nuclear energy and now has a much more developed set of programs than the US. Russia will, therefore, continue to play a leading role in the field of nuclear energy. Even though it has huge gas reserves, it would much rather use nuclear energy first, while selling the gas for a profit.
  
  · Nuclear weapons and nuclear power are connected in part by the fact that both require the protection of nuclear materials. Debates in the US about nuclear weapons and nuclear power appear virtually impossible to resolve individually, but there may be room for approaching both sets of issues together. The problem in the US is that the nuclear power community refuses to be linked with the nuclear weapons community.
• · There is also a great deal of debate in the US on the nature of the economic and environmental impact of nuclear energy, as well as what its expanded use would mean for America's relationship to foreign oil.
• · Given the position of the US vis-à-vis Russia in the area of nuclear energy, there appear to be a number of mutually beneficial ways in which both countries could cooperate. Moreover, the events of September 11th have given new impetus to US-Russian cooperation in general. There are similar high hopes for the upcoming Bush-Putin summit in Moscow, where it is expected that the two leaders will announce their intentions to cooperate closely on spent nuclear fuel issues, including advanced research on fuel-cycles.
  • - From a US public policy standpoint, the two most recognizable problems with cooperation on nuclear energy are that many people remain skeptical towards Russia and many people are equally uncertain about anything nuclear. This means that while the US has the wherewithal to deal with these problems, it does not have a future goal. Conversely, Russia has the opposite problem: an idea of where they would like to go, but no funds to make it happen.
  • - On the technical side, there are different types of reactors that the US and Russia could work on together that would begin to solve the problem of nuclear waste. There are, for example, so-called fast breeder reactors and next-generation thermal reactors that Russia has been trying to develop. The US government, on the other hand, has been doing very little work on fast-breeder reactors.
• · Dr. Reis continued by stating that Russia sees the development of nuclear energy as being in its fundamental interest, so it is going to continue working in this direction. The US should therefore be working with Russia to make sure that what Russia does is also in the interests of the US. The question looming in the US is who would be willing and able to take a leadership role on nuclear energy issues.
  • - It is estimated that a nuclear energy program funded by the US government would require at least $50-$100 million in FY 2003 to just get started. To get a real program permanently in place, it is estimated that the US would need to commit at least $2 billion. However, even with that amount of money, there would not be a commercially viable US nuclear energy industry for fifteen to twenty years. The principal risk that laboratories will have to take is that their returns on investment will not be realized until an infrastructure is created.
  • - By virtue of having good working relations with the Russians, Argonne National Laboratory, as well as various other national laboratories, are some of the only institutions that have the expertise, the logistics and the personnel to spearhead this effort. However, some "proof of utility" will have to be presented, sources of funding will have to be found, and the role of the US Department of Energy will have to be identified.
• · In addition to working with Russia, the US needs to recognize that France and Japan already have well developed nuclear energy programs, and that China and India continue to build their programs as well. This means that the best long-term approach to nuclear energy would be international.
• · The bottom line is as follows: 1) nuclear power needs to be viewed separately from nuclear weapons even though the two issues can complement one another in terms of a solution to spent fuel; 2) nuclear power production needs to be environmentally friendly; 3) safety assurances in nuclear power production are critically important; 4) effective nuclear waste management must be possible; 5) adequate funding must be made available; and 6) any international effort must first start at home.

Discussion

Following the remarks of Dr. Reis, Ms. Eisenhower led a brief discussion on some of the points that had been raised:

• · One participant suggested that while there is no perfect design for a fast-breeder reactor at the moment, it may be possible to develop an interim solution that addresses the safety and nonproliferation concerns. It was then noted that some work is already being done on this at the University of Maryland.
• · Another participant said that Russia is currently concentrating most of its efforts on so-called third-generation thermal reactors. However, because these reactors are neither inherently safe nor designed to use spent-fuel, the Russians are eager to have an ongoing dialogue with the US on these issues. In fact, technical exchanges at approved levels have already taken place in some instances.
• · An issue raised by a number of people was what to do with the increasing amounts of spent fuel that exist around the world, especially in the US and Russia. Production of both weapons-grade nuclear material and material that can be burned in civilian nuclear plants produces waste that must be disposed in an environmentally friendly way, and must be protected from being stolen. There are a variety of technical ideas being circulated by Russian nuclear scientists and engineers about how to build reactors that could deal with both of these problems at once.

• An industry representative commented on the role of the private sector in developing a commercially viable nuclear energy industry. He explained that various private-sector firms have already done a great deal of work on some of the technical issues, but most of their information remains proprietary-only 10-15% is released into the public domain. In other words, national laboratories are not the only organizations suited to carry out work, but in order to get involved, they will have to see some sort of baseline return-on-investment in the medium-term at the very least.
  

Conclusions

Ms. Eisenhower concluded the meeting by suggesting that there is a parallel between the prospects for US-Russian cooperation in the area of nuclear energy and the achievements of US-Russian cooperation in space on the International Space Station (ISS). The challenge for international cooperation in the nuclear energy industry is similar to the challenge that first confronted the ISS project: nuclear cooperation would need to be presented the right way. It would need to have high-level sponsors who are engaged at the outset. Both the general public and the decision-makers would have to buy in to the rationale for cooperation. Only by doing so would proper attention be given to the work, as well as sustained political leadership.