U.S. Support Rankles Pakistan by Ahmed Rashid

U.S. Support for Northern Alliance Rankles Pakistan

By Ahmed Rashid (Oct. 22, 2001)

(Orignally published on Eurasianet.org.)

Pakistani officials and Pashtun commanders loyal to former King Mohammed Zahir Shah are displeased with U.S. reluctance to support efforts to launch anti-Taliban military operations in southern Afghanistan. U.S. hesitation stems from concern that Pakistan's Interservices Intelligence (ISI) may be trying to create another pro-Pakistan government from the rump of the Taliban and other pro-Pakistani Pashtun tribal chiefs - just as the ISI did with the Taliban seven years ago.

Pakistani frustrations are compounded by the U.S. decision to step up military cooperation with the ethnic Tajik and Uzbek-dominated Northern Alliance, which Islamabad views as a direct competitor for influence in shaping Afghanistan's future. On October 21, American warplanes began bombing Taliban defensive positions on the Kabul front, possibly preparing the ground for a Northern Alliance assault on Kabul, about 30 miles away.

Meanwhile, at least eight officers from U.S. special forces have taken up an advisory and intelligence role with Northern Alliance commander General Rashid Dostum,leader of an ethnic Uzbek militia that is part of a force trying to capture the key strategic city of Mazar-i-Sharif in the north. The capture of Mazar would provide U.S. special forces and attack helicopters with a key base of operations inside Afghanistan.

The Northern Alliance has no influence amongst the majority Pashtun population in the south where Taliban support is based. If the Northern Alliance takes Kabul without support from the Pashtuns, Pakistan and royalist commanders fear chaos, inter-ethnic massacres and a continuation of the 12-year-old civil war.

Pakistani officials argue that military efforts should focus on southern Afghanistan because that is where Taliban leaders and Osama bin Laden are based. However, the U.S. has so far declined to support royalist commanders who are presently based in Pakistan and are seeking to open the southern offensive.

Based in Rome, the former King has set up the Supreme Council for the National Unity of Afghanistan, which includes Pashtuns and the Northern Alliance. The Council says it is willing to leave seats open on its 120-man body for Taliban moderates who defect.

Royalist military commanders now in the Pakistani border town of Quetta are working feverishly to entice defections from the Taliban. They also are trying to win over Pashtun tribal chiefs so that the royalists can enter Afghanistan to establish the first anti-Taliban resistance movement in the south. However, they lack money, equipment and supplies. ''We are trying to ensure there is no power vacuum after the collapse of the Taliban and that the Supreme Council [Zahir Shah's broad coalition] should take control of the entire country, as it is liberated province by province,'' says Hedayat Amin Arsala, a representative of the former king, who met with U.S. officials in Washington in mid-October, and then returned to Islamabad to solicit support for the Supreme Council from Pakistani leaders.

According to several sources, the Washington discussions did not produce a U.S. commitment to back a Pashtun force in southern Afghanistan. ''We are extremely frustrated by the lack of U.S. support,'' said a royalist commander who participated in the talks. ''Washington has not yet decided whether to support us or not, and there seems to be paralysis there about the whole issue of forming a new Afghan government.''

Pakistan's General Pervez Musharraf raised the issue of lack of US support for Pashtuns with U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell and British Prime Minister Tony Blair when they visited Islamabad separately in mid-October. A Pakistani presidential aide stressed that Pakistan and Western countries agree on the need for Afghanistan's next government to be broad based and multi-ethnic - but "the differences with the Western alliance are that Pakistan fears a political vacuum, chaos and anarchy on its long border with Afghanistan unless a political alternative quickly emerges."

Some Western officials, along with many Afghans, are deeply suspicious of Pakistani intentions for the post-Taliban order in Afghanistan. Those suspicions are rooted in the ISI's past support for the Taliban. Even though the ISI and the CIA are now cooperating on intelligence gathering, some Western officials still believe that many ISI operatives are ideologically committed to the Taliban, and are deeply anti-American.

At the same time the Northern Alliance has repeatedly condemned Islamabad for its interference in Afghanistan, while Pakistan has warned the Northern Alliance not to try and capture Kabul. Islamabad has stated repeatedly that it would not accept a Northern Alliance-dominated government in Kabul.

In mid-October, President Musharraf reshuffled the top brass of the army and also appointed a new ISI chief - General Ehsan ul Haq who is known as a moderate and non-ideological officer. Haq immediately changed the ISI's director for covert operations and is expected to make more changes ensuring that Taliban supporters in the ISI are weeded out.

The ISI is not averse to allowing the royalist Pashtun commanders enter Afghanistan and set up a base in the south - but only if it is done with full political and financial support from the United States and the Western alliance. Despite an earlier rejection of a Zahir Shah role in Afghan state building, President Musharraf has softened his attitude since September 11. "After meeting with President Musharraf, I have very positive feelings about Pakistan's changed attitude," says Arsala. Nevertheless, many royalist commanders remain wary of ISI intentions.

Musharraf and the ISI are treading cautiously for the moment. They are reluctant to plunge into the government-formation process in Afghanistan, as the ISI did earlier through its support to the Taliban. However, if the US military campaign is not complimented by a more coherent political strategy, Islamabad many feel forced to take action. Pakistani leaders feel the longer it takes to formulate a comprehensive political strategy, the greater the risk to Pakistan's national security. Islamabad fears that the ongoing bombing campaign could create a migration crisis in which the Pakistan-Afghanistan border region deteriorates into anarchy. Such instability in southern Afghanistan could quickly spread into Pakistan, officials in Islamabad believe.

Some Western diplomats admit that US planning for Afghanistan's political future is lagging far behind military thinking, creating a threat to the US-led anti-terrorism alliance. "The alliance needs to decide on who it wants to see come to power in Afghanistan and then back them," says a European ambassador in Islamabad. "But at the same time Western support should be discreet so that it does not create a backlash from Afghans who would resent Western interference."

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