Paul Roberts

Author Event: Paul Roberts
The End of Oil
May 17, 2004

From left: Paul Roberts, Christopher Flavin, Alan Miller, and Brent Erickson

The Eisenhower Institute hosted an author event at the National Press Club on May 17, 2004.  Paul Roberts chaired a panel discussion centered on the coming energy dilemma facing the United States described in his new book The End of Oil. Roberts, a regular contributor to the Atlantic, was joined by three experts on energy policy: Christopher Flavin, president of Worldwatch Institute; Alan Miller of the International Financial Corporation and board member of the Sustainable Energy Institute; and Brent Erickson, vice president for Industrial and Environmental Biotechnology at the Biotechnology Industry Organization.

The panelists presented an overview of the major problems and solutions associated with the emerging energy crisis, and the discussion was framed in terms of three major aspects of the continuing debate: political instability and its effect on the sources of energy, the growing scarcity of oil and other fossil fuels, and the environmental degradation associated with exploiting resources. Roberts posed two possible future scenarios for how action might evolve: a slow policy and demand-driven transition away from the dependency on oil through conservation, with increased fuel efficiency, and the development of alternate, sustainable, and renewable energy sources; or, a dramatic, overnight shift which will shock society into finding new sources of energy. In both scenarios, the panelists agree there is no one mechanism that will solve the future energy crisis, instead a combination of sources will be necessary.

Much of the dialogue was devoted to analyzing the most appropriate and effective responses to the imminent end of oil. Flavin and Miller pointed to the importance of change on the demand-side and the role of consumer preference. All observed the need for consumers, especially Americans and Europeans, to be better aware of the amount of energy they use and understand the importance of conservation.

Aside from examining how the demand for oil might be decreased, the panel discussed possible alternate sources of energy for different applications - transportation, electricity, industry, etc. Erickson and Flavin discussed the role of technological innovations in aiding in the transition away from an oil-based energy economy toward alternate energies. Aside from the use of hybrid vehicles, wind farms and conservation measures, methods to develop renewable ethanol from wheat straw and to make plastics from corn were highlighted as examples. However, all panelists noted that rapid policy change is needed to foster a sense of urgency in technological development.

Roberts ended the discussion by pointing out that technological and political advancements can occur in a relatively short amount of time, but reemphasized the need for political resolve, and the danger of waiting until an energy crisis was already upon us.